With Enough knowledge you can spot trends, but pinning numbers to timing is difficult
As one travel writer noted, with enough knowledge you can spot trends, but pinning numbers to timing is difficult: “Paradise is a moving target. Get there too early, and there’s no running water. Too late and there’s a long line at Starbucks.” So I do not want to be like the commodities traders who tell you on TV that silver “could” rise 2400% in three months. But the direction is plain to see.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results
That said, in our case, we embrace the stockbrokers’ warning that “Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.” It is the introduction of new factors and trends that allows very positive qualitative projections in the fairly near term (4 – 10 years) for Roatan in general and the north shore in particular.
The last Caribbean islands for development to take off
Roatan is one of the last Caribbean islands for development to take off. The forces that are accelerating and synergistic are (1) the new first-class road opening up the north shore; (2) the mew hotel being among the first fruits of that road; (3) a third cruise ship port and the expansion of the international airport, bringing many more visitors to the island. International trends, including the ongoing retirement of the “Baby Boomers,” and high consumer confidence, low returns on financial instruments and prosperity fuel these trends.
But trends need to be matched against what you are looking for in as a return on investment, both in amount and timing, and whether you have in mind developing yourself, waiting for development to come to you, or for the overall increase in land values. The best approach I know of is through specific opportunities, to see if they appeal.
Look for my next blog where I will talk will break down each type of opportunity to help you plan your next move!